US indices can go deep

US indices can go deep

In the morning, the MosBirzhi index was trading in negative territory on fears of the next US restrictions. Representatives of both parties of the United States came forward with initiatives of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, which provide for restrictions on investments in Russian government debt securities.

Naturally, the strongest reaction was in the banking sector, which is the main holder of OFZ: "Sberbank" (-1.26%), "VTB" (-1.45%). However, in the first hours the fall in securities was much stronger. By noon, the nerves of investors have largely calmed down due to the growth of quotations of oil and a strengthening ruble. Accordingly, the dynamics "blue chips" was relatively calm: "Gazprom" (-0.75%), "LUKOIL" (+ 0.9%), "Rosneft" (-0.52%), MMC "Norilsk Nickel" (+ 0.62%), "Severstal" (-0.36%).

In the morning, the MosBirzhi index was trading in negative territory on fears of the next US restrictions. Representatives of both parties of the United States came forward with initiatives of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, which provide for restrictions on investments in Russian government debt securities.

Naturally, the strongest reaction was in the banking sector, which is the main holder of OFZ: "Sberbank" (-1.26%), "VTB" (-1.45%). However, in the first hours the fall in securities was much stronger. By noon, the nerves of investors have largely calmed down due to the growth of quotations of oil and a strengthening ruble. Accordingly, the dynamics "blue chips" was relatively calm: "Gazprom" (-0.75%), "LUKOIL" (+ 0.9%), "Rosneft" (-0.52%), MMC "Norilsk Nickel" (+ 0.62%), "Severstal" (-0.36%).

The leaders of the day are representatives of non-ferrous metallurgy: GDR En + (+ 1.95%), "Pole" (+ 1.86%), Polymetal (+ 1.28%). Sales remain in the consumer sector after weak operating reports "Tapes" and "Okay": "Magnet" (-2.82%), GDR X5 Retail Group (-1.3%). "NOVATEK" (+ 0.67%) increased second-quarter IFRS profit attributable to shareholders, to 32.41 billion rubles, compared with 3.243 billion rubles a year earlier. However, not without a spoon of tar. Capital expenditures increased 2.3 times to 22 billion rubles.

The ruble strengthened, although the risks of restrictions against OFZ could lead to the opposite. By the middle of Moscow, the Brent was worth about 4650 rubles. The one-day MosPrime rate rose to 7.26%, the weekly rate dropped to 7.33%, and the monthly rate dropped to 7.38%. The demand for rubles is partially related to the tax period, and partly to the placement of OFZ. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance planned to place two issues in the amount of 35.19 billion rubles. At the first auction, investors were offered OFZ-PD of issue 26223 with redemption on February 28, 2024. Demand amounted to 64.384 billion rubles with a weighted average yield of 7.69%. Significant demand can not but rejoice, but here the yield is clearly higher than at the beginning of the spring of this year. While the prospects for new US restrictions are rather vague, but without them, non-residents are actively leaving the OFZ market. According to the Central Bank of Russia, the share of non-residents in OFZ as of July 1 declined to 28.2%, or 1.982 trillion rubles, compared to 30.5% as of June 1, or 2.123 trillion rubles. A year ago the share of non-residents was at the level of 30.5%, or 1.869 trillion rubles. Thus, one can not fully blame the Finance Ministry for a weak ruble, as it was also actively promoted by foreign holders of OFZs. With the next threats, you can expect resumption of sales, which will put pressure on the rate of the domestic currency. However, the output volumes are still difficult to call threatening. By 15:35 (Moscow time), the USD / RUB – 62.962 (-0.57%), EUR / RUB – 73.617 (-0.48%).

European markets started the day calmly, but then nervousness increased significantly in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting of D. Trump with the head of the European Commission Juncker. Naturally, the main issue of the meeting will be trade relations. The American side suggests zeroing out duties on cars, but this does not end with trading issues. A quite strong report did not save STMicroelectronics NV paper from a fall of 5.3%, as technological papers are clearly under pressure in recent days. Deutsche Bank (-1.47%) once again failed to meet investors’ expectations for profits. The statistics should pay attention to the assessment of the current situation in Germany, which increased to 105.3 points from 105.1 points, with expectations of a decrease to 104.6 points. The index of the business climate decreased to 101.7 points from 101.8 points (-0.63%), CAC 40 – 5426.13 p. (-0.15%), FTSE 100 – 7644.57 p. (-0 , 84%).

In the morning, the MosBirzhi index was trading in negative territory on fears of the next US restrictions. Representatives of both parties of the United States came forward with initiatives of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, which provide for restrictions on investments in Russian government debt securities.

Naturally, the strongest reaction was in the banking sector, which is the main holder of OFZ: "Sberbank" (-1.26%), "VTB" (-1.45%). However, in the first hours the fall in securities was much stronger. By noon, the nerves of investors have largely calmed down due to the growth of quotations of oil and a strengthening ruble. Accordingly, the dynamics "blue chips" was relatively calm: "Gazprom" (-0.75%), "LUKOIL" (+ 0.9%), "Rosneft" (-0.52%), MMC "Norilsk Nickel" (+ 0.62%), "Severstal" (-0.36%).

The leaders of the day are representatives of non-ferrous metallurgy: GDR En + (+ 1.95%), "Pole" (+ 1.86%), Polymetal (+ 1.28%). Sales remain in the consumer sector after weak operating reports "Tapes" and "Okay": "Magnet" (-2.82%), GDR X5 Retail Group (-1.3%). "NOVATEK" (+ 0.67%) increased second-quarter IFRS profit attributable to shareholders, to 32.41 billion rubles, compared with 3.243 billion rubles a year earlier. However, not without a spoon of tar. Capital expenditures increased 2.3 times to 22 billion rubles.

The ruble strengthened, although the risks of restrictions against OFZ could lead to the opposite. By the middle of Moscow, the Brent was worth about 4650 rubles. The one-day MosPrime rate rose to 7.26%, the weekly rate dropped to 7.33%, and the monthly rate dropped to 7.38%. The demand for rubles is partially related to the tax period, and partly to the placement of OFZ. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance planned to place two issues in the amount of 35.19 billion rubles. At the first auction, investors were offered OFZ-PD of issue 26223 with redemption on February 28, 2024. Demand amounted to 64.384 billion rubles with a weighted average yield of 7.69%. Significant demand can not but rejoice, but here the yield is clearly higher than at the beginning of the spring of this year. While the prospects for new US restrictions are rather vague, but without them, non-residents are actively leaving the OFZ market. According to the Central Bank of Russia, the share of non-residents in OFZ as of July 1 declined to 28.2%, or 1.982 trillion rubles, compared to 30.5% as of June 1, or 2.123 trillion rubles. A year ago the share of non-residents was at the level of 30.5%, or 1.869 trillion rubles. Thus, one can not fully blame the Finance Ministry for a weak ruble, as it was also actively promoted by foreign holders of OFZs. With the next threats, you can expect resumption of sales, which will put pressure on the rate of the domestic currency. However, the output volumes are still difficult to call threatening. By 15:35 (Moscow time), the USD / RUB – 62.962 (-0.57%), EUR / RUB – 73.617 (-0.48%).

European markets started the day calmly, but then nervousness increased significantly in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting of D. Trump with the head of the European Commission Juncker. Naturally, the main issue of the meeting will be trade relations. The American side suggests zeroing out duties on cars, but this does not end with trading issues. A quite strong report did not save STMicroelectronics NV paper from a fall of 5.3%, as technological papers are clearly under pressure in recent days. Deutsche Bank (-1.47%) once again failed to meet investors’ expectations for profits. The statistics should pay attention to the assessment of the current situation in Germany, which increased to 105.3 points from 105.1 points, with expectations of a decrease to 104.6 points. The index of the business climate decreased to 101.7 points from 101.8 points (-0.63%), CAC 40 – 5426.13 p. (-0.15%), FTSE 100 – 7644.57 p. (-0 , 84%).

Oil continued to grow slightly after statistics on US inventories. The API reported that commercial oil inventories declined by 3.16 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories fell 4.87 million barrels. It was expected a more modest decline of 2.3 million bar. and 0.7 million bar. respectively. In the daytime, news arrived from Libya, where the authorities took control of the El-Sharar field. However, there is no information about the volume of production. The Russian Ministry of Energy raised the forecast for oil production to 555 million tons in 2019, compared with 547 million tons in 2017. In the operational plan, the market is clearly waiting for statistics from the US Energy Ministry. At a minimum, there may be occasions for the growth of quotations WTI, as according to API reserves at the terminal in Cushing are reduced for ten consecutive weeks. By 15:35 (Moscow time) Brent – $ 73.81 (+ 0.50%), WTI – $ 68.67 (+ 0.22%), gold – $ 1231.8 (+ 0.51%), copper – $ 6203, 83 (+ 0.12%), nickel – $ 13,675 (+ 0.55%).

Before the start of trading in the US futures on the Dow Jones lost about 0.4%, and S&P 500 has decreased about 0.2%. The period of corporate reports so far helps to compensate for the fears of a large-scale trade war. Boeing Co. reported better than forecasts, but in preliminary bidding the company’s shares declined due to the results of revenue in the commercial air transport division. General Motors may also be under pressure due to a weak revenue report. AT&T reported better than expected earnings, but revenue was worse than last year. Coca-Cola Co. surpassed expectations on revenue and profits. And, finally, United Parcel Service also reported better than expected both in terms of profit and revenue, but the market clearly counted on more. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles downgrades the forecast for 2018, and also reported a profit loss of 35%. Accordingly, the mood in the US market may not be so optimistic. If, on the other hand, the negotiations between D. Trump and Juncker do not soften the situation, the US indices will find themselves in a deep minus. This will affect the domestic market indicators, although Russia is largely protected from American trade wars.